Tigray War: Post-Conflict

Summary

The recent conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia that began 3 November 2020, and ended on 3 November 2022, through a peace deal mediated by the African Union in South Africa’s capital of Pretoria, continues to require international attention given the mass atrocities, human rights violations, and other allegations of war crimes among both parties (UN News; Winning and Cocks 2022). I recommend the United States continues to monitor the situation as history demonstrates that this region is susceptible to conflict noting the short-lived unilateral ceasefire in March 2022 and history of ongoing disputes (Giulia 2022). While a peace deal is a step in the right direction, an ongoing humanitarian crisis persists, and multiple human rights violations must be investigated (UN News). Recommendations about how the U.S. should specifically monitor and assist are provided in the Recommendations section below.

Issue

This paper addresses the effects of the conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia from 3 November 2020 through 3 November 2022 and recommendations for U.S. involvement. While a peace deal was signed through a mediation process facilitated by the African Union, allegations of war crimes, genocide, sexual violence, and other human rights violations are being investigated. As of today, the peace agreement appears to be upheld by both parties. It is a positive sign that Prime Minister Abiy met on 3 February 2023, with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) as it suggests that that the relationship between the parties is improving (Reuters).

Background

In November 2020, the TPLF attacked the Ethiopian National Defense Bases in the Tigray region to allegedly rob and obtain military equipment and artillery (Press Statement - Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia 2020). It is suggested that this attack occurred because the TPLF believed the Ethiopian Government was (1) deliberately removing TPLF members from its existing government leadership positions and (2) interfering with the elections processes in the Tigray region, using the COVID-19 pandemic as its justification (American Diplomat Podcast). This attack by the TPFL resulted in a military response by the Ethiopian government. Early in the conflict, Prime Minister Abiy requested the Eritrean government assist the Ethiopian government against the TPLF. It is important to note that Eritrea has a long history of conflict with the TPLF (Boswell and Woldemariam 2022). Tigray is along Eritrea’s southern border, and the Eritrean government views the TPLF as a threat to national security (Behind the News).

Throughout the conflict, the TPLF, Ethiopian government, and Eritrean government have faced numerous allegations of mass atrocities, rape, torture, sexual violence, genocide, ethnic cleansing, and other war crimes. Evidence suggests that all parties involved with the conflict are guilty of these egregious acts. In addition, it has been suggested that the Ethiopian government is guilty of using starvation as a weapon of war because it blocked humanitarian aid from entering the Tigray region for several months (Behind the News).

On 2 November 2022, a peace deal was reached between the Ethiopian Government and the TPLF with an effective date of 3 November 2022 (UN News). The peace process was facilitated by the African Union in Pretoria, the capital of South Africa. The agreement included a cease fire, restoration of services, law and order, and full access to humanitarian aid (Winning and Cocks 2022).  

Discussion

While a peace agreement has been signed, the U.S. must continue to monitor the situation given the peace deal is in its early stages of implementation. As mentioned, Prime Minister Abiy met with the TPLF on 3 February 2023 for the first time since the peace agreement. This is a positive sign that suggests the relationship between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government is being nurtured and the risk of additional conflict in the near term is reduced. However, given the decades of history of conflict, the long-term implications remain unknown, and it is best to remain cautiously optimistic.

The U.S. and international partners (e.g., United Nations) must ensure that both parties abide by the peace deal because at any moment the situation can escalate since, “neither Eritrea nor the regional forces participated in the talks in South Africa and there was no mention at Wednesday's ceremony of whether they would abide by the truce,” (Winning and Cocks 2022). Another reason the U.S. and our allies must monitor the implementation of the peace deal is because Ethiopia became vulnerable to other threats both hostile (al-Shabaab invaded Ethiopia through the Somalia border in July 2022) and humanitarian (forcible displacement).

Since the conflict began in 2020, scholars have estimated between 385,000 to 600,000 people died during the conflict for reasons including, warfare, lack of healthcare, and famine (York 2022). While not officially declared a genocide, mass atrocities occurred, and allegations of ethnic cleansing and war crimes have been made. To prevent future mass atrocities from occurring in Ethiopia, recommendations are proposed in the next section that address: (1) humanitarian aid; (2) implementation of the peace accord; (3) investigations and accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity; (4) security and threat assessments; and (5) rebuilding critical infrastructure, communities, and the need for transparency in elections processes. These recommendations are supported by short discussions that expand on available diplomatic tools, and the partners (e.g., UN, NGOs, African Unition) that could be involved. These recommendations address many of the key and immediate issues facing Ethiopia.

Recommendation: Continued Humanitarian Aid and Assistance

The first recommendation centers on the need for continued humanitarian aid and assistance to improve stability and to save lives of those in need. Key issues that must be addressed include food security, nutrition, health, protection, shelter and settlements, water, sanitation, and hygiene, logistics support and relief commodities (USAID). If humanitarian aid is hindered again, the U.S. can rely on Executive Order 14046, “Imposing Sanctions on Certain Persons with Respect to the Humanitarian and Human Rights Crisis in Ethiopia,” until the issue is resolved.

Given the extent of the crisis and the number of issues that need to be addressed, substantial funding is needed to support recovery efforts in Ethiopia (UNHCR). Further, the U.S. must do what it can to help ensure the equitable distribution of aid. This may include regular reporting and tracking of aid receipt. When conflict exists, there is an economic opportunity for some populations within a state to benefit from an influx of aid and resources more than others. Rural and low-income areas are often at an economic and resource disadvantage compared to the urban areas that receive various forms of humanitarian aid. The U.S. and the international community must work to address this disparity in their state-building efforts (Shortland, Christopoulou, and Makatsoris 2013). Local NGOs can help track the distribution of aid and ensure it is delivered to those in need.

Recommendation: Attention to the Implementation of the Peace Accord

 “To avoid failures that other states have experienced when undertaking a national dialogue approach, Nyadera and Ahmed recommend that the following five principles be applied and adhered to: (1) Diverse and broad base of stakeholders; (2) a credible conveyer (e.g., local or international organizations or a highly respected individual); (3) transparency and continual public involvement; (4) clarity and transparency of any mandates and identified rules, terms of reference, and procedures; and (5) an identified mechanism for implementation of resolutions,” (Cotter 2022).

The second recommendation is to continue monitoring the implementation of the peace accord.        Through the mediation efforts of the African Union, the five criteria for peacebuilding listed above are being addressed. For this peace accord to have long-term success in Ethiopia, all terms must be upheld by the parties, and anyone who violates the terms must be held accountable.

While the African Union should continue to take the lead in mediation, the U.S. must determine what actions it will take if a party violates the terms of the peace agreement. One possible course of action, if a violation occurs, is the U.S. can impose sanctions (as discussed in the previous recommendation). “The United States always has at its disposal as a policy tool the prospect of sanctions and we will not hesitate to deploy them if that should become necessary in terms of holding actors accountable for human rights violations or for the purposes of trying to ensure that this agreement is respected and abided," the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters,”(Psaledakis 2022). Other actions that the U.S. can take if the terms of the peace accord are not upheld include, diplomatic pressure and joint statements with our allies. The course of action the U.S. takes if the Ethiopian government or TPLF violates a term of the agreement will ultimately depend on the severity of the violation.  

Recommendation: Investigations and Accountability – War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity

The third recommendation is to see that all investigations into war crimes and crimes against humanity are seen through and perpetrators are prosecuted accordingly. “The Commission of Inquiry on Ethiopia, which is working under a mandate from the U.N.’s Human Rights Council, attributed a litany of war crimes on all sides, but said the government forces of Ethiopia had also resorted to “starvation of civilians” as a tool of war. It also said both Ethiopian and Eritrean forces were found to be responsible for “sexual slavery” — while Tigray forces were not,” (Keaton 2022). It is important for the U.S. to make sure perpetrators of these crimes are held accountable and advocate on behalf of those who suffered from human rights violations. Failure to hold perpetrators (and/or the state) accountable may result in backlash and will demonstrate that war crimes and crimes against humanity are not always punished. That type of message could risk millions of lives in the future.

For this specific conflict, there are challenges ahead in terms of accountability as prosecution will be a difficult process. During an interview with Ambassador David Scheffer, he stated that, “the ICC doesn’t have jurisdiction in Ethiopia – it must be referred by the Security Council and the Ethiopia court may not take it on because it would implicate them,” (IAL 598 2023). Given this, the U.S. can begin discussions with the United Nations Security Council about how to develop a legal framework to hold perpetrators of war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity accountable that are outside the ICCs jurisdiction. This can be accomplished through the development and adoption of new United Nations Security Council Resolutions that are specific to areas outside the ICC’s jurisdiction. While it may take several years to accomplish, a legal framework can be widely adopted should this type of event occur again. Failure to address the issue of legal accountability of war crimes and crimes against humanity threatens global security.

Recommendation: Security Risk and Threat Assessments

The fourth recommendation is for the U.S. to conduct two security risk and threat assessments. The first assessment should be specific to U.S. national security interests. This can be handled through the State Department, AFRICOM, the CIA and other relevant U.S. agencies. The second assessment should be a collaborative effort with the African Union, UN, and other local/regional stakeholders and NGOs.

While a peace deal was signed between the TPLF and Ethiopian government and foreign forces are mandated to withdraw from Tigray, there are still allegations that Eritrean forces remain present (Reuters). Not only is Ethiopia susceptible to intrastate conflict, but it is also susceptible to other combatants crossing its borders. This was seen in July 2022 when al-Shabaab entered the region from Somalia. Assessing the state’s current security risks and threats is critical to sustained peace. Once the assessments are completed, security reform within Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa must be addressed. Failure to perform security risk and threat assessments will threaten the security and stability of the state, and it may impact other states in the Horn of Africa.

Recommendation: Rebuilding and Transparency

The fifth recommendation centers on rebuilding both infrastructure and communities and discussions about the need for transparent election processes. The U.S., through support of local NGOs, can lead the development of rebuilding and repairing critical infrastructure (e.g. healthcare system). Given the current humanitarian aid crisis, the healthcare system continues to be stressed. Aiding in this area will not only save lives, but also improve lives. The U.S. can aid through local NGOs and contractors to support the improvement and construction of healthcare facilities.

To help rebuild communities, the U.S. can support local NGOs in the repatriation of refugees and provide food, security, and resources (e.g., medical equipment, prescriptions, aid, clothing, water, hygiene) to IDPs and camps within Ethiopia’s borders. Hundreds of thousands of people are displaced and this puts a strain on Ethiopia’s stability. The U.S. must support this effort to reduce future threats to the area and to save the lives of civilians, notably Ethiopia’s vulnerable populations (e.g., children and elders).

Finally, the U.S., in partnership with key stakeholders and the African Union, can help foster and facilitate the rebuilding and reconciliation of relationships between the involved parties and communities. This includes facilitating tolerance and respect for diversity and conversations about the state’s election processes. This is important step in Ethiopia’s present and future stability. Failure to address the core causes of the conflict will put the state at risk for a future intrastate conflict and future mass atrocities.

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